More specifically, Hamburg at the mouth of Elbe River, Paris at the confluence of Seine and Marne, Florence, Zaragoza, London, Geneva, Ghent, and Linz were the regions with the highest overall losses. The researchers found, when looking at flood risk EAD with structural flood defences in the baseline year, that Germany had the highest flood risk for residential buildings, followed by France, Italy and Spain in descending order. The results of the flood-risk analysis – at the most detailed spatial scale available – found urban centres and their surrounding regions to be the hotspots of flood risk in Europe. The researchers described flood risk for an area as accumulated direct tangible loss (in euros per time period), and event probability, as well as expected annual damage (EAD) in euros. Scenarios with improved and neglected private precaution were also evaluated for their influence on flood risk, using the ‘BN-FLEMOps’ model (Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation Model for the private sector) to estimate fluvial flood losses for residential buildings in Europe. In 2025 the risk level is similar for the two pathways, whereas later on in the century the risk becomes more distinct, with loss doubling under RCP 8.5 between 20. RCP 8.5 is the highest future concentration trajectory developed by the IPCC, whereas RCP 4.5 is more moderate – they both refer to concentrations in 2100. The climate scenarios used were the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 – greenhouse gas trajectories developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The influence of exposure change and climate scenarios on fluvial flood risk were analysed for three future dates: 2025, 20. Data from 1995 on tangible losses due to flooding of residential housing stock in Europe were used as a baseline, from which future exposure could be calculated. The researchers combined new data for hazard and flood protection standards with high-resolution exposure projections and aspects of vulnerability from open data sources. Importantly, this evaluation includes resistance factors to flooding, such as precautionary measures taken by homeowners to ameliorate the risk of flood in their home - which are useful for considering in risk-mitigation strategies. The model quantifies future flood risk in Europe, showing hotspots and trends where targeted interventions may be useful. This study offers the first high-resolution assessment of future flood risk in Europe including changes across three key components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. To enable better adaptation planning and improved flood-risk management, it is important to understand the drivers of risk under different climate, socioeconomic and private flood-precaution scenarios. In 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund was set up to aid Member States when natural disasters occur, as a response to severe flooding in Central Europe. Societal changes have also led to more people living on floodplains over the last few decades, increasing the potential damages from river flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the amount and frequency of rainfall in the future, so flood losses and the number of people affected by river floods in Europe, will also rise. Fluvial flooding usually happens when a significant amount of rain falls over a long time, causing rivers to rise and overflow onto surrounding land. This study provides a large-scale risk assessment of river-based flooding in Europe for the years 2025, 20 - to estimate flood losses to homes.įloods affect more people globally than any other natural hazard.
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